Pair #299

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-VGK

Will Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Vegas Golden Knights
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 6847832

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPRES-26-VGK

Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?

Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Vegas Golden Knights
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2580

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Vegas Golden Knights wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:06:10Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the President's Trophy, and winning the President's Trophy does not require winning the Stanley Cup. These are independent achievements.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.8000
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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