Pair #2970

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-DTHO

Will Davis Thompson win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Davis Thompson
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 205055

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Thompson wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-DTHO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Davis Thompson finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Davis Thompson
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1075

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Davis Thompson finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:07:09Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily within the top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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