Pair #2969

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-MTHO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 50714

YES ask: 0.6400
NO ask: 0.3800
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MTHO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21646

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.0900
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:07:09Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 (including ties) logically necessitates finishing top 20 (including ties), since top 5 is a subset of top 20. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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