Pair #2968

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MTHO

Will Michael Thorbjornsen lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 18115

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MTHO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21646

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.0900
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:07:09Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not necessitate a top 20 finish (could miss cut or fade). Finishing top 20 does not necessitate leading after Round 1 (could start poorly and recover).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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