Pair #2966

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-MTHO

Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1596008

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MTHO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21646

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.0900
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:06:53Z

Reasoning: If Michael Thorbjornsen wins the tournament, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily within the top 20. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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