Pair #2965

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-MTHO

Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1596008

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-MTHO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Michael Thorbjornsen finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Michael Thorbjornsen
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 50714

YES ask: 0.6400
NO ask: 0.3800
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Thorbjornsen finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:06:53Z

Reasoning: If Michael Thorbjornsen wins the tournament, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily within the top 5. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 5 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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