Pair #2963

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-SJAE

Will Stephan Jaeger lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 28718

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-SJAE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 30845

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:06:53Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top-20 finish (a player can collapse over subsequent rounds). A top-20 finish does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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