Pair #2962

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-SJAE

Will Stephan Jaeger win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 636868

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stephan Jaeger wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-SJAE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 30845

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stephan Jaeger finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:06:53Z

Reasoning: If Stephan Jaeger wins the tournament, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily within the top 20. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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