Pair #291

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-BUF

Will Buffalo Sabres win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Buffalo Sabres
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4270787

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLATLANTIC-26-BUF

Will Buffalo Sabres win the NHL Atlantic Division?

Series: KXNHLATLANTIC
Entity: Buffalo Sabres
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 68121

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025-2026 NHL Atlantic Division, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:05:53Z

Reasoning: A team can win the Stanley Cup without winning their division (via wild card), and winning the Atlantic Division does not guarantee winning the Cup.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -99.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9500
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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