Pair #2902

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-TFRI

Will Taylor Fritz win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Taylor Fritz
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2693

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Taylor Fritz wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR24LEHFRI-1-FRI

Will Taylor Fritz win set 1 in the Jiri Lehecka vs Taylor Fritz match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Taylor Fritz
Expiration: 2026-03-24T14:00:00Z
Volume: 683

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Taylor Fritz wins set 1 in the Jiri Lehecka vs Taylor Fritz professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:05:44Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam has no logical connection to winning set 1 of a Miami Open R16 match. These are entirely separate events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -55.31% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -59.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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