Pair #2901

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-TFRI

Will Taylor Fritz win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Taylor Fritz
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2693

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Taylor Fritz wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR24LEHFRI-FRI

Will Taylor Fritz win the Lehecka vs Fritz : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Taylor Fritz
Expiration: 2026-03-24T14:00:00Z
Volume: 141683

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.6800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Taylor Fritz wins the Lehecka vs Fritz professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:05:44Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam does not require winning a Miami Open R16 match — these are separate tournaments. Winning a Miami Open R16 match does not require winning a Grand Slam.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -58.04% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -62.32% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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