Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR24LEHFRI-1-FRI
Will Taylor Fritz win set 1 in the Jiri Lehecka vs Taylor Fritz match
Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Taylor Fritz
Expiration: 2026-03-24T14:00:00Z
Volume: 683
YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.6200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Taylor Fritz wins set 1 in the Jiri Lehecka vs Taylor Fritz professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXMOMEN-26-FRI
Will Taylor Fritz win the ATP Miami Open?
Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Taylor Fritz
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 22415
YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Taylor Fritz wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:05:44Z
Reasoning: Winning the Miami Open does not require winning set 1 of the Lehecka match — Fritz could lose set 1 and still win the match and tournament. Winning set 1 certainly does not imply winning the tournament.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.4800
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A