Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-BUF
Will Buffalo Sabres win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Buffalo Sabres
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4270787
YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLPRES-26-BUF
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?
Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Buffalo Sabres
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 9013
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Buffalo Sabres wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:05:53Z
Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the President's Trophy (best regular season record), and winning the President's Trophy does not guarantee a Stanley Cup win.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-43.70%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0500
Days to maturity:
31
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-47.92%
BELOW HURDLE