Pair #290

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-BUF

Will Buffalo Sabres win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Buffalo Sabres
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4270787

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPRES-26-BUF

Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Pro Hockey President's Trophy?

Series: KXNHLPRES
Entity: Buffalo Sabres
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 9013

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Buffalo Sabres wins the Pro Hockey President's Trophy, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:05:53Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the President's Trophy (best regular season record), and winning the President's Trophy does not guarantee a Stanley Cup win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -43.70% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -47.92% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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