Pair #29

Antecedent (implies)

KXATP1RANK-26JUN30-CALC

Who will be the #1 ranked ATP men's singles player on Jun 30, 2026?

Series: KXATP1RANK
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-06-30T16:00:00Z
Volume: 1291

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.7400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz is the #1 ranked on the PIF ATP singles rankings on Jun 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (implied)

KXMOMEN-26-ALC

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Carlos Alcaraz
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 1872

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Carlos Alcaraz wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:51:04Z

Reasoning: Being ranked #1 on June 30 does not require winning the Miami Open, and winning the Miami Open does not guarantee being #1 on June 30. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -68.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4000
Days to maturity: 105
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -73.16% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T10:15:31Z

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