Pair #2892

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-AZEV

Will Alexander Zverev win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 31714

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Zverev wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR24HALZVE-ZVE

Will Alexander Zverev win the Halys vs Zverev : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Alexander Zverev
Expiration: 2026-03-25T03:30:00Z
Volume: 4039

YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.1400
Last: 0.8700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alexander Zverev wins the Halys vs Zverev professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:05:24Z

Reasoning: The Miami Open is not a Grand Slam. Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 has no logical connection to a Miami Open R16 match, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -42.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3800
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -46.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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