Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-BUF
Will Buffalo Sabres win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Buffalo Sabres
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4270787
YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-BUF
Will the Buffalo Sabres be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?
Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Buffalo Sabres
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 65281
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Buffalo Sabres are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:05:53Z
Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup Finals requires having qualified for the playoffs. So Buffalo winning the Cup necessarily means they were a playoff qualifier.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-99.96%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.9500
Days to maturity:
31
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-104.18%
BELOW HURDLE