Pair #2885

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXMOMEN-26-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 28318

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

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Rules

If Frances Tiafoe wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR24ATMTIA-TIA

Will Frances Tiafoe win the Atmane vs Tiafoe : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Frances Tiafoe
Expiration: 2026-03-24T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3695

YES ask: 0.6600
NO ask: 0.3500
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Frances Tiafoe wins the Atmane vs Tiafoe professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:05:24Z

Reasoning: To win the ATP Miami Open, Tiafoe must win every match including the Round of 16 match against Atmane. If he wins the tournament, he necessarily won that R16 match. The reverse does not hold — winning the R16 match does not guarantee winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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