Pair #2881

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TKIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 37189

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-TKIM

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Tom Kim finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5678

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:05:07Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major and finishing top 5 at the Houston Open are independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -3.32% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -7.60% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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