Pair #288

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-BUF

Will Buffalo Sabres win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Buffalo Sabres
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4270787

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLEAST-26-BUF

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Buffalo Sabres
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 927757

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Buffalo Sabres wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:05:53Z

Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, Buffalo must have won the Eastern Conference Finals to reach the Finals. Winning the Cup logically necessitates winning the Eastern Conference Finals.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -70.73% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -74.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T11:43:20Z

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