Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNHL-26-BUF
Will Buffalo Sabres win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?
Series: KXNHL
Entity: Buffalo Sabres
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4270787
YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLEAST-26-BUF
Eastern Conference Finals Winner?
Series: KXNHLEAST
Entity: Buffalo Sabres
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 927757
YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.1600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Buffalo Sabres wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:05:53Z
Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, Buffalo must have won the Eastern Conference Finals to reach the Finals. Winning the Cup logically necessitates winning the Eastern Conference Finals.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
-70.73%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.1100
Days to maturity:
31
Hurdle yield:
4.22%
Excess yield:
-74.95%
BELOW HURDLE