Pair #2873

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-WCLA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5365

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.1100

Rules

If Wyndham Clark wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-WCLA

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Wyndham Clark finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 23832

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Wyndham Clark finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:05:07Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major and finishing top 5 at the Houston Open are independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 3.52% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -0.76% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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