Pair #2871

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-RFOX

Will Ryan Fox lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ryan Fox
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12730

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryan Fox is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-RFOX

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Ryan Fox finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ryan Fox
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7261

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryan Fox finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:04:52Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically guarantee a top 20 finish — a player can fall significantly over the remaining rounds. Top 20 does not require leading Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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