Pair #2850

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ASCO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2196

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-ASCO

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Adam Scott finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 30678

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adam Scott finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:04:35Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major in 2026 is logically independent of finishing top 20 at the Texas Children's Houston Open. These are separate tournaments with no necessary connection.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -66.29% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8200
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -70.61% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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