Pair #2842

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 46041

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22798

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.5400
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:04:19Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top-20 finish (a player can collapse over subsequent rounds), and finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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