Pair #2841

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 779797

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22798

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.5400
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:04:19Z

Reasoning: Winning the Houston Open means finishing 1st, which is necessarily inside the top 20. The reverse does not hold — a top-20 finish does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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