Pair #2840

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 46041

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-TECHO26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge win the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z
Volume: 779797

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins the Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:04:19Z

Reasoning: Winning the Houston Open does not require leading after Round 1; a player can win a tournament without ever holding the outright Round 1 lead. And leading Round 1 does not imply winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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