Pair #284

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-UTA

Will Utah Mammoth win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Utah Mammoth
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1986685

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Utah Mammoth win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLCENTRAL-26-UTA

Will Utah Mammoth win the NHL Central Division?

Series: KXNHLCENTRAL
Entity: Utah Mammoth
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4112

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Utah Mammoth win the 2025-2026 NHL Central Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:05:53Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the Central Division — a team can reach and win the Cup as a wild card. And winning the Central Division does not guarantee a Stanley Cup win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 31
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -4.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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