Pair #2839

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 800

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22798

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.5400
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:04:19Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major and finishing top 20 at the Houston Open are unrelated events. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -56.54% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6300
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -60.82% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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