Pair #2837

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MPEN

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22798

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.5400
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 898559

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:04:19Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 20 at the Houston Open are separate events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5410
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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