Pair #2834

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHOJ

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 704

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-RHOJ

Will Rasmus Hojgaard lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3101

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:04:04Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and leading after Round 1 of the Houston Open are independent events. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.79% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -6.10% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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