Pair #2831

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-APOT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Aldrich Potgieter make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Aldrich Potgieter
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 6248

YES ask: 0.6900
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aldrich Potgieter has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-APOT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Aldrich Potgieter finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Aldrich Potgieter
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 36428

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aldrich Potgieter finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:04:04Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish — a player could make the cut but finish outside the top 20. A top 20 finish does imply making the cut, but that is the reverse direction (B implies A), and while logically sound, it is not strictly guaranteed in all rule interpretations (e.g., no-cut events), though in standard PGA Tour events top 20 finishers must have made the cut. However, the antecedent here would be KXPGATOP20 implying KXPGAMAKECUT, not the other direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.7400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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