Pair #283

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-UTA

Will Utah Mammoth win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Utah Mammoth
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1986685

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Utah Mammoth win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLWEST-26-UTA

Western Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: Utah Mammoth
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 249359

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Utah Mammoth wins the Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:05:53Z

Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, Utah Mammoth must have won the Western Conference Finals to reach the Finals. So winning the Cup necessarily means winning the Western Conference Finals.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -33.07% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -37.26% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T09:56:57Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue