Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-APOT
Will Aldrich Potgieter lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Aldrich Potgieter
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 44889
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Aldrich Potgieter is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-APOT
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Aldrich Potgieter finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Aldrich Potgieter
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 36428
YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.2400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Aldrich Potgieter finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:04:04Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish — the player could miss the cut or finish outside the top 20. A top 20 finish does not imply leading after Round 1.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.2500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A