Pair #2829

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-APOT

Will Aldrich Potgieter lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Aldrich Potgieter
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 44889

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aldrich Potgieter is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-APOT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Aldrich Potgieter finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Aldrich Potgieter
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 36428

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aldrich Potgieter finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:04:04Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish — the player could miss the cut or finish outside the top 20. A top 20 finish does not imply leading after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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