Pair #2822

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-APOT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Aldrich Potgieter finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Aldrich Potgieter
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 36428

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aldrich Potgieter finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-APOT

Will Aldrich Potgieter win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Aldrich Potgieter
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 710628

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aldrich Potgieter wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:03:44Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters has no logical connection to finishing top 20 at the Houston Open (a separate event). Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8210
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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