Pair #282

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-UTA

Will Utah Mammoth win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Utah Mammoth
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1986685

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Utah Mammoth win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-UTA

Will the Utah Mammoth be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?

Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Utah Mammoth
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 32581

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Utah Mammoth are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:05:37Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup Finals requires having made the playoffs. So Stanley Cup win → playoff qualifier. The reverse does not hold (could make playoffs and not win the Cup).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -104.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:34:19Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue