Pair #2816

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-SBUR

Will Sam Burns lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 58679

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-SBUR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sam Burns finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14498

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:03:44Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish (a player could collapse over subsequent rounds). Finishing top 20 does not require having led after Round 1. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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