Pair #2813

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SBUR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8708

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0900

Rules

If Sam Burns wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-SBUR

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sam Burns finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14498

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Burns finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:03:44Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major has no logical connection to finishing top 20 at the Houston Open (a separate, non-major event). Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -26.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -31.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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