Pair #2803

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-STHE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5897

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-STHE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Sahith Theegala finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 29686

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1700
Last: 0.8900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:03:26Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major and finishing top 20 at the Houston Open are independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -65.79% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8700
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -70.07% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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