Pair #28

Antecedent (implies)

KXFOMEN-26-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 31040

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3100

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Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (implied)

KXGOLFTENNISMAJORS-26-SIN

Will Jannik Sinner win more major tournaments in 2026?

Series: KXGOLFTENNISMAJORS
Entity: Jannik Sinner
Expiration: 2026-09-14T14:00:00Z
Volume: 566

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2900

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Rules

If Jannik Sinner wins more major tournaments than Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau combined in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:51:04Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open gives Sinner one major, but the golfers could collectively win more (e.g., two or more majors combined). No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 4.41% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 85
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: +0.19% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T09:51:23Z

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