Pair #2798

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-CGOT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Chris Gotterup make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4684

YES ask: 0.9200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.9800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-CGOT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 51797

YES ask: 0.6900
NO ask: 0.3600
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:03:11Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top-20 finish. A player can make the cut and finish outside top 20. Top-20 implies making the cut, but not vice versa — and top-20 is Event B here. No implication from A to B.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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