Pair #2797

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-CGOT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Chris Gotterup make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4684

YES ask: 0.9200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.9800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-CGOT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17741

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.6500
Last: 0.4200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:03:11Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top-10 finish — a player can make the cut and finish outside the top 10. Top-10 implies making the cut but the rules only state top-10 finishes; this direction holds logically. However, top 10 → made cut is the valid direction. But wait: top 10 finishing necessarily means making the cut. So top-10 implies made cut, not the other way around.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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