Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-CGOT
Will Chris Gotterup lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 92510
YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Chris Gotterup is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-CGOT
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 51797
YES ask: 0.6900
NO ask: 0.3600
Last: 0.7300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:03:11Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top-20 finish, and finishing top 20 does not require leading after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.6700
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A