Pair #2788

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CGOT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22807

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-CGOT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17741

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.6500
Last: 0.4200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:03:11Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Major in 2026 is a completely separate tournament from the Texas Children's Houston Open. No logical connection between these two events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -41.55% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3700
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -45.83% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue