Pair #2787

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CGOT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22807

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-TECHO26-CGOT

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Chris Gotterup make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-03-27T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4684

YES ask: 0.9200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.9800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup has made the cut at the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:02:51Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and making the cut at the Houston Open are independent events at different tournaments. Neither logically necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -65.47% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -69.75% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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