Pair #2786

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CGOT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 23033

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 92510

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:02:51Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and leading after Round 1 of the Houston Open are completely independent events. Neither necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 5.69% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: +1.37% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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