Pair #277

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHLWEST-26-DAL

Western Conference Finals Winner?

Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: Dallas Stars
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 317506

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Dallas Stars wins the Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLPLAYOFF-26-DAL

Will the Dallas Stars be one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers?

Series: KXNHLPLAYOFF
Entity: Dallas Stars
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 11866

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Dallas Stars are one of the 2025-26 Pro Hockey Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:05:37Z

Reasoning: Winning the Western Conference Finals means Dallas made the playoffs. However, making the playoffs does not mean they won the Western Conference Finals. So Western Conference win → playoff qualifier, not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -99.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9500
Days to maturity: 30
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -104.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-18T15:32:41Z

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