Pair #2766

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BKOE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17487

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-BKOE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12665

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:02:35Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not imply finishing top 5 in the Houston Open, and vice versa — these are entirely separate tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 5.36% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: +1.08% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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