Pair #2765

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BKOE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 18194

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-TECHO26-BKOE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 32384

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:02:35Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not imply finishing top 10 in the Houston Open, and vice versa — these are separate tournaments with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 7.69% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9600
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: +3.38% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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