Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-TECHO26-MLEE
Will Min Woo Lee lead at the end of Round 1 in the Texas Children's Houston Open?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 53122
YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Min Woo Lee is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-TECHO26-MLEE
Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 32768
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Min Woo Lee finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:02:17Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 finish (could fade over remaining rounds). And finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.9600
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A