Pair #275

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-26-DAL

Will Dallas Stars win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Dallas Stars
Expiration: 2026-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 2883630

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Dallas Stars win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLCENTRAL-26-DAL

Will Dallas Stars win the NHL Central Division?

Series: KXNHLCENTRAL
Entity: Dallas Stars
Expiration: 2026-04-17T14:00:00Z
Volume: 41356

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If the Dallas Stars win the 2025-2026 NHL Central Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:05:37Z

Reasoning: Winning the Stanley Cup does not require winning the Central Division (wild card path exists), and winning the Central Division does not guarantee winning the Stanley Cup. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 22.61% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: +18.42% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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