Pair #2744

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MWLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5466

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0800

Rules

If Min Woo Lee wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-TECHO26-MLEE

Texas Children's Houston Open: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-04-12T00:00:00Z
Volume: 27555

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3400
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Min Woo Lee finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-24T08:02:01Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and finishing top 5 at the Houston Open are independent events at different tournaments. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -57.87% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -62.15% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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